Respondents believe Democrats will take House and Republicans will keep Senate
Brookville, NY (October 22, 2018) – A new Long Island University Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling and Analysis poll shows that a majority of Americans disapprove of the House, Senate, and President Trump.
The national poll showed President Trump’s job performance approval rating at 29.21 percent with 70.50percent believing his performance will have an impact on this year’s congressional races. Additionally, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives fared even worse, receiving approval ratings of just 14.31 and 13.54 percent, respectively.
“The results say more about the polarization of the country than anything else.” according to Dr. Stan Klein Director of the Hornstein Center, “Despite low approval ratings for the Senate, most respondents believe that the Republicans will keep control of the chamber. This is in contrast to the House, where respondents felt that the Democrats would take the House and where recent court decisions continue to strike down partisan, gerrymandered districts throughout key, vote-rich swing states such as Pennsylvania and North Carolina.”
While respondents were decisively negative on elected officials, there was significant optimism concerning the financial market. Out of those surveyed who provided an opinion, 52.61 percent felt the stock market indexes would continue to remain high, and only 13.15 percent indicated that they felt the state of the U.S. economy was poor.
“The strength of the economy is often one of the most important items that voters consider,” offers Michael Morrisey, Assistant Director of the Hornstein Center. “It will be interesting to see if this optimism ultimately translates not just this November, but in 2019 and 2020 when the next general election includes the race for the White House.”
All of these findings are based on a published public opinion poll that was conducted from October 10-20, 2018 of 1,034 Americans.
Dr. Klein, a political science professor at LIU for over 50 years, is the Director of the Hornstein Center. He brings extensive experience in politics, government, and academia to the work done here at the Steven S. Hornstein Center. His classes cover a wide range of issues including the U.S. Congress, the U.S. Presidency, and U.S. Foreign Policy. A staple of the LIU community, he has long fostered a creative political dialogue both inside and outside the classroom. He obtained his PhD from New York University.
| Long Island University Hornstein Center Poll on National Politics | ||||||||||
| Q1. Do you approve of the job performance of the
United States House of Representatives? |
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| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| I approve of the U.S. House of Representatives’ job performance; | 13.54% | 140 | ||||||||
| I disapprove of the U.S. House of Representatives’ job performance; | 55.22% | 571 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 19.05% | 197 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 12.19% | 126 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q2. Which party do you think will hold a majority in the United States House of
Representatives following November’s elections? |
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| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| The Democratic party; | 34.72% | 359 | ||||||||
| The Republican party; | 33.46% | 346 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 23.60% | 244 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 8.22% | 85 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q3. Do you approve of the job performance of the United States Senate? | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| I approve of the U.S. Senate’s job performance; | 14.31% | 148 | ||||||||
| I disapprove of the U.S. Senate’s job performance; | 58.22% | 602 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 15.67% | 162 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 11.80% | 122 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q4. Which party do you think will retain a majority in the United States Senate
following November’s election? |
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| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| The Democratic party; | 24.37% | 252 | ||||||||
| The Republican party; | 39.46% | 408 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 27.27% | 282 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 8.90% | 92 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
|
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| Q5. Do you approve of President Trump’s job performance? | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| I approve of President Trump’s job performance; | 29.21% | 302 | ||||||||
| I disapprove of President Trump’s job performance; | 57.93% | 599 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 6.38% | 66 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 6.48% | 67 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q6. Do you approve of the job performance of the Supreme Court of the
United States? |
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| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| I approve of the Supreme Court’s job performance; | 33.66% | 348 | ||||||||
| I disapprove of the Supreme Court’s job performance; | 30.27% | 313 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 22.34% | 231 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 13.73% | 142 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q7. Do you think that public opinion of President Trump will impact
congressional races? |
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| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| Yes; | 70.50% | 729 | ||||||||
| No; | 10.15% | 105 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 13.15% | 136 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 6.19% | 64 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q8. What do you think is the state of the U.S. economy? | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| Very strong; | 13.64% | 141 | ||||||||
| Strong; | 29.88% | 309 | ||||||||
| Fair; | 35.20% | 364 | ||||||||
| Poor; | 13.15% | 136 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 8.12% | 84 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
|
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| Q9. Do you anticipate that the stock market indexes will remain high? | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| Yes, they will continue to remain at very high levels; | 9.77% | 101 | ||||||||
| Yes, they may come down some, but will remain high; | 42.84% | 443 | ||||||||
| No, they will fall to much lower levels; | 26.02% | 269 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 21.37% | 221 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q10. Are you registered to vote? | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| Yes; | 86.17% | 891 | ||||||||
| No, but I plan to register before the next election; | 4.93% | 51 | ||||||||
| No, and I do not plan to register; | 5.90% | 61 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 3.00% | 31 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q11. With which political party do you primarily identify? | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| I primarily identify as an Independent; | 18.96% | 196 | ||||||||
| I primarily identify as a Democrat; | 32.98% | 341 | ||||||||
| I primarily identify as a Republican; | 21.37% | 221 | ||||||||
| I primarily identify with another political party; | 3.29% | 34 | ||||||||
| I do not primarily identify with one political party; | 14.60% | 151 | ||||||||
| Unsure; | 1.64% | 17 | ||||||||
| No Opinion; | 7.16% | 74 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q12. Age | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| < 18 | 0.00% | 0 | ||||||||
| 18-29 | 20.79% | 215 | ||||||||
| 30-44 | 25.15% | 260 | ||||||||
| 45-60 | 23.21% | 240 | ||||||||
| > 60 | 30.85% | 319 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
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| Q13. Gender | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| Male | 46.91% | 485 | ||||||||
| Female | 53.09% | 549 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q14. Household Income | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| $0-$9,999 | 7.45% | 77 | ||||||||
| $10,000-$24,999 | 8.99% | 93 | ||||||||
| $25,000-$49,999 | 12.57% | 130 | ||||||||
| $50,000-$74,999 | 12.48% | 129 | ||||||||
| $75,000-$99,999 | 9.96% | 103 | ||||||||
| $100,000-$124,999 | 10.74% | 111 | ||||||||
| $125,000-$149,999 | 6.38% | 66 | ||||||||
| $150,000-$174,999 | 3.97% | 41 | ||||||||
| $175,000-$199,999 | 2.42% | 25 | ||||||||
| $200,000+ | 5.71% | 59 | ||||||||
| Prefer not to answer | 19.34% | 200 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1034 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 0 | |||||||||
| Q15. Region | ||||||||||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |||||||||
| New England | 5.97% | 61 | ||||||||
| Middle Atlantic | 13.99% | 143 | ||||||||
| East North Central | 14.19% | 145 | ||||||||
| West North Central | 7.63% | 78 | ||||||||
| South Atlantic | 15.95% | 163 | ||||||||
| East South Central | 5.38% | 55 | ||||||||
| West South Central | 8.02% | 82 | ||||||||
| Mountain | 9.69% | 99 | ||||||||
| Pacific | 19.18% | 196 | ||||||||
| Answered | 1022 | |||||||||
| Skipped | 12 | |||||||||
Polling Methodology
This Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling & Analysis poll was conducted from October 10-20 with 1,034 responses representative of U.S. Census Data with a margin of error of ±3 percent.
The Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis at LIU Post conducts independent, fair, and balanced polling, empirical research, and analysis on a wide range of public issues including lifestyle preferences. The Center’s goals include informing the community, public and policy makers about critical issues.
