Long Island University Hornstein Center Poll: What Connecticut Thinks of the Governor and U.S. Senate Midterm Election Races

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Brookville, N.Y., (Nov. 3, 2022): The results of a breaking Connecticut mid-term election poll by Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis were announced less than a week from election day to be held on November 8, 2022. 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Senator Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) as he seeks a third term in the U.S. Senate. 55 percent of respondents said they would vote for Democratic incumbent Ned Lamont in the Governor’s race.

WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR IF THE ELECTION FOR U.S. SENATE WERE HELD TODAY?

BLUMENTAL 51%; LEVY 26%; UNDECIDED 14%; NOT PLANNING TO VOTE 5%; ANOTHER CANDIDATE 4%
Respondents in Connecticut were asked who they would vote for if the election for U.S. Senate were held today. 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Democratic Candidate Richard Blumenthal. 26 percent said they would vote for Republican Candidate Leora Levy. 14 percent said they were undecided. 9 percent said they were not planning on voting or voting for another candidate. There were regional differences in voting preferences. Regions that preferred Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) at the highest rates were Hartford (58 percent), New Haven (57 percent), and Tolland (51 percent). Regions that preferred Leora Levy (Republican) were Litchfield (35 percent), Middlesex (31 percent), Windham (31 percent), and New London (31 percent). The regions with the highest percentage of undecided respondents were Windham (22%) and Fairfield (18%). Among respondents, the demographics most undecided were independent (23 percent), age 18-29 (20 percent), and women (15 percent). The highest rate of respondents not planning to vote for U.S. Senate by region was Windham (11 percent). Among respondents not planning on voting, the leading demographics were independents (10 percent) and age 18-29 (9 percent).

WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR IF THE ELECTION FOR U.S. SENATE WERE HELD TODAY?

LAMONT 55%; STEFANOWSKI 24%; UNDECIDED 13%; NOT PLANNING TO VOTE 5%; ANOTHER CANDIDATE 3%
Respondents in Connecticut were asked who they would vote for if the election for Governor were held today. 55 percent of respondents said they would vote for Democratic Candidate Ned Lamont. 24 percent said they would vote for Republican Candidate Bob Stefanowski. 13 percent said they were undecided. 8 percent said they were not planning on voting or voting for another candidate. There were regional differences in voting preferences. Regions that preferred Ned Lamont (Democrat) at the highest rates were Hartford (61 percent), Tolland (59 percent) and New Haven (58 percent). Regions that preferred Bob Stefanowski (Republican) were Middlesex (33 percent), Windham (33 percent) and Litchfield (30 percent). The regions with the highest percentage of undecided respondents were Windham (21%) and New London (18%). Among respondents, the demographics most undecided were independent (23 percent), age 45-60 (21 percent), and household income less than $50 thousand (19 percent). The highest rate of respondents not planning to vote for Governor by region was Windham (8 percent) and New London (8 percent). Among respondents not planning on voting, the leading demographics were independents (10 percent), Black or African American (10 percent) and age 18-29 (9 percent).

ECONOMY IS THE ONE ISSUE THAT MATTERS MOST FOR VOTERS

While a variety of factors were mentioned, the one issue that mattered most on deciding how to vote among respondents was the economy (29 percent). Following close behind were gun laws (12 percent), abortion (10 percent), and health care (10 percent). 43 percent of Republicans reported the economy as the most important issue. 32 percent of Independents and 18 percent of Democrats agreed that the economy was the most important issue. Coronavirus was among the least cited (2 percent) indicating that Connecticut respondents have moved beyond the pandemic as the most important issue.

IN-PERSON VOTING – METHOD OF CHOICE

Among the respondents, 67 percent of Connecticut respondents said they plan to vote in person, 20 percent plan to mail in their ballot, and 12 percent said they still aren’t sure. 78 percent of Republicans, 70 percent of Democrats, and 59 percent of Independents said they would vote in-person.

FINAL STRETCH

The election will be held in 6 days on November 8, 2022.

METHODOLOGY

This Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis online poll was conducted on SurveyMonkey Audience from October 24 to 26 among a sample of 1004 adults ages 18 and up in Connecticut. Data for this poll have been weighted for age, gender and ethnicity to match the population of Connecticut using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. The modeled error estimate for this survey is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

AMERICAN OPINION PANEL

The American Opinion Panel, created by the Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis at Long Island University, is building a nationally representative panel of U.S. adults to provide a voice for Americans on critical issues and trends through opinion surveys. Visit liu.edu/american-opinion-panel to sign up. Your opinions matter.

ABOUT THE LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY STEVEN S. HORNSTEIN CENTER FOR POLICY, POLLING, AND ANALYSIS

The Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis conducts independent polling, empirical research, and analysis on a wide range of public issues. Our studies inform the public and policy makers about critical issues, attitudes, and trends shaping the world. Visit liu.edu/Hornstein for more information.

ABOUT LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY

Long Island University, founded in 1926, is a leading research and teaching university that continues to redefine higher education by providing high-quality academic instruction by world-class faculty. Recognized by Forbes for its emphasis on experiential learning and by the Brookings Institution for its “value added” to student outcomes, LIU has a network of over 285,000 alumni, including industry leaders and entrepreneurs around the globe. Visit liu.edu for more information.