Long Island University Hornstein Center National Poll: What America Thinks About the 2020 Presidential Election

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PDF Format – Includes sample and methodology detail

BROOKVILLE, NY, October 29, 2020 – Results of a breaking Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis national poll reveals what Americans think in the final days before the 2020 presidential election to be held on November 3, 2020.

WHO ALREADY VOTED?                                                                                                  DEMOCRATS 66%; REPUBLICANS 54%; INDEPENDENT/OTHER 43%

Americans were asked if they already voted. More than half (54 percent) of all respondents said they already cast their ballot. 66 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of Republicans already voted.  Respondents who identify as independent or other party have been less inclined to vote early (43 percent). At the time of this national poll, more than 70 million Americans have already voted, exceeding half of the 2016 presidential election’s total turnout.

WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY?                   OCT 27: BIDEN 47%; TRUMP 36%; UNDECIDED 9%; ANOTHER CANDIDATE 5%      OCT 1: BIDEN 48%; TRUMP 31%; UNDECIDED 9%; ANOTHER CANDIDATE 7%

Americans were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. Respondents said they would vote for Biden (47 percent), Trump (36 percent), and another candidate (5 percent). An additional 9 percent of respondents said they were undecided and 3 percent said they wouldn’t vote if the elections were held today. By comparison to an earlier national poll held on October 1, Trump has gained 5 points from 31 percent to 36 percent, while Biden holds steady at 47 percent, losing 1 point since earlier in the month.

AGE MATTERS                                                                                                  HIGHEST MAJORITY WHO ALREADY VOTED: AGE 18-29 (58%); OVER 60 YEARS OLD (60%)

The highest rates of early voting occurred by respondents in the age range of 18 to 29 (58 percent) and those who are over 60 years old (60 percent). Respondents in the age range of 18 to 29 prefer Biden (50 percent) over Trump (28 percent). Respondents over 60 years old also prefer Biden (46 percent) over Trump (42 percent).

THE INDEPENDENT VOTE                                                                                       57% OF INDEPENDENTS HAVE NOT YET VOTED

The highest number of votes yet to be counted come from respondents that reported as independent or other party (57 percent). The issues that matter most to Independent/other respondents were the economy (24 percent), coronavirus (13 percent), and health care (13 percent). Independents and Democrats both rated the issues of health care and coronavirus over ten points higher than Republicans as the one issue that mattered most on deciding how to vote. Republicans reported the economy at a higher rate (53 percent) than Independents (24 percent) and Democrats (14 percent).

VOTING METHOD OF CHOICE

Americans were asked how they voted. Among the respondents, 21 percent said they voted in person, 35 percent said they voted by mail-in ballot, and 44 percent said they did not vote yet.

FINAL STRETCH

The 2020 presidential election will be held in 4 days on November 3, 2020.

METHODOLOGY

This Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis online poll was conducted through SurveyMonkey from October 26–27, 2020, among a national sample of 1,573 adults, ages 18 and up. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. The modeled error estimate for this survey is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

ABOUT THE LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY STEVEN S. HORNSTEIN CENTER FOR POLICY, POLLING, AND ANALYSIS

The Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis conducts independent polling, empirical research, and analysis on a wide range of public issues. Our studies inform the public and policy makers about critical issues, attitudes, and trends shaping the world. Faculty and scholars from all schools of study at Long Island University participate in data collection and analysis. Visit liu.edu/Hornstein for more information and results from this national poll.

ABOUT LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY

Long Island University, founded in 1926, continues to redefine higher education, providing high quality academic instruction by world-class faculty. Recognized by Forbes for its emphasis on experiential learning and by the Brookings Institution for its “value added” to student outcomes, LIU offers over 250 degree programs, with a network of 270,000 alumni that includes industry leaders and entrepreneurs across the globe. Visit liu.edu for more information.