LIU Hornstein Poll Highlights that Despite Economic Gains, Many Americans Retain Pessimistic View

Echoing Recent Special Election, Views on Economy Will Impact November Midterms

A new Long Island University Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling and Analysis poll on the economy shows that despite stock market gains and historically low unemployment, Americans continue to have a generally pessimistic view of the economy.

The LIU Hornstein poll found that 44 percent of Americans rate the economy positively (very strong or strong), while 51 percent rate it negatively (only fair or poor).  Similarly, 36 percent believe the economy is getting better, 34 percent believe it is getting worse, and the remainder believe it is staying the same or they have no opinion.

One relative bright spot in the poll, however, is that Americans are seeing improvements in the labor market. 56 percent agree that this is a good time to begin a job search, while 55 percent feel secure in their present employment.

Highlighting one of the reasons the Republicans saw little traction in the recent Special Election in Pennsylvania’s 18^th Congressional District on the tax issue, just 29 percent of Americans believe the recently passed tax bill will improve the economy, while 40 percent believe it will weaken the economy, and the remainder believe it will have no impact.

The economy remains a personal issue for many Americans, with just 37 percent saying their feel economically secure, while 47 percent do not.

“As we saw in the Pennsylvania Special Election, if Americans do not think the economy is improving, do not feel economically secure and do not believe the tax bill will improve the economy, the Republicans will have great difficulty winning elections on this issue,” said Dr. Edward Summers, a Fellow at the Hornstein Center. “If the Republican playbook is to run on the economy this Fall, they will either need to dramatically change Americans’ perceptions or draw up some new plays.”

The division on the economy extends to tariffs. While 40 percent of Americans support tariffs because they believe they will protect American jobs and competitiveness, an almost equal 39 percent opposes tariffs because they think these charges will disrupt the markets and negatively impact prices.

The findings are based on a published public opinion poll conducted from March 12-13, 2018, of 1021 Americans, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

Dr. Summers, who obtained his Ph.D. in Public Policy, is a Fellow at the Hornstein Center. His career includes experience in public policy, higher education, and opinion research.

Long Island University

Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis

National Survey on State of the Economy

March 12-13, 2018

Polling Methodology

This Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling & Analysis poll was conducted through Survey Monkey March 12-13, 2018 in English to 1030 Americans over the age of 18. Polling data was sorted by age, gender & geographic location in efforts to ensure a nationwide representative sample. This poll has an overall margin of error of +/- 3 points.

The Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis at LIU Post conducts independent, fair, and balanced polling, empirical research, and analysis on a wide range of public issues including lifestyle preferences. The Center’s goals include informing the community, public and policy makers about critical issues.