Echoing Recent Special Election, Views on Economy Will Impact November Midterms
A new Long Island University Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling and Analysis poll on the economy shows that despite stock market gains and historically low unemployment, Americans continue to have a generally pessimistic view of the economy.
The LIU Hornstein poll found that 44 percent of Americans rate the economy positively (very strong or strong), while 51 percent rate it negatively (only fair or poor). Similarly, 36 percent believe the economy is getting better, 34 percent believe it is getting worse, and the remainder believe it is staying the same or they have no opinion.
One relative bright spot in the poll, however, is that Americans are seeing improvements in the labor market. 56 percent agree that this is a good time to begin a job search, while 55 percent feel secure in their present employment.
Highlighting one of the reasons the Republicans saw little traction in the recent Special Election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District on the tax issue, just 29 percent of Americans believe the recently passed tax bill will improve the economy, while 40 percent believe it will weaken the economy, and the remainder believe it will have no impact.
The economy remains a personal issue for many Americans, with just 37 percent saying their feel economically secure, while 47 percent do not.
“As we saw in the Pennsylvania Special Election, if Americans do not think the economy is improving, do not feel economically secure and do not believe the tax bill will improve the economy, the Republicans will have great difficulty winning elections on this issue,” said Dr. Edward Summers, a Fellow at the Hornstein Center. “If the Republican playbook is to run on the economy this Fall, they will either need to dramatically change Americans’ perceptions or draw up some new plays.”
The division on the economy extends to tariffs. While 40 percent of Americans support tariffs because they believe they will protect American jobs and competitiveness, an almost equal 39 percent opposes tariffs because they think these charges will disrupt the markets and negatively impact prices.
The findings are based on a published public opinion poll conducted from March 12-13, 2018, of 1021 Americans, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
Dr. Summers, who obtained his Ph.D. in Public Policy, is a Fellow at the Hornstein Center. His career includes experience in public policy, higher education, and opinion research.
Long Island University
Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis
National Survey on State of the Economy
March 12-13, 2018
|Q1. How would you currently rate the U.S. economy?|
|Q2. In what direction is the U.S. economy trending?|
|The U.S. economy is getting better;||35.73%||368|
|The U.S. economy is getting worse;||33.50%||345|
|The U.S. economy is the same;||23.11%||238|
|Q3. Is it a good time to begin a job search?|
|It is a good time to begin a job search;||55.83%||575|
|It is not a good time to begin a job search;||20.29%||209|
|Q4. Is it a good time to invest?|
|It is a good time to invest;||50.19%||517|
|It is not a good time to invest;||26.60%||274|
Q5. Do you think the recently implemented tax reforms will improve the economy?
|I think the proposed tax reform bill will improve the economy;||28.83%||297|
|I think the proposed tax reform bill will weaken the economy;||40.10%||413|
|I think the proposed tax reform bill will have no effect on the economy;||13.20%||136|
|Q6. Should the federal government provide subsidies to American companies and producers?|
|Yes, subsidies will help keep them competitive in the market and keep prices low;||15.34%||158|
|Yes, subsidies will help keep jobs in the U.S.;||18.83%||194|
|No, subsidies disrupt the market and negatively impact prices;||26.50%||273|
|No, it is unfair to other companies and producers;||15.83%||163|
|Q7. Do you support tariffs on imported goods?|
|Yes, they protect American companies and producers keep them competitive;||22.62%||233|
|Yes, they protect American jobs;||17.67%||182|
|No, they disrupt the market and negatively impact prices;||38.93%||401|
|Q8. Do you feel economically secure in the current climate?|
|Yes, I feel economically secure;||37.38%||385|
|No, I do not feel economically secure;||46.50%||479|
|Q9. Do you feel secure in your current employment given the state of the economy?|
|Yes, I feel secure in my employment;||55.15%||568|
|No, I do not feel secure in my employment;||25.73%||265|
Q10. Are you married?
|Q11. Do you have children?|
|Q12. Are you registered to vote?|
|No, but I plan to register before the next election;||3.88%||40|
|No, and I do not plan to register;||5.83%||60|
|Q13. With which party do you primarily identify?|
|I primarily identify with the Republican party;||23.79%||245|
|I primarily identify with the Democratic party;||35.44%||365|
|I primarily identify with another party;||4.95%||51|
|I do not primarily identify with one political party;||28.54%||294|
|Q16. Household Income|
|Prefer not to answer||15.15%||156|
|East North Central||15.52%||158|
|West North Central||6.58%||67|
|East South Central||5.50%||56|
|West South Central||10.12%||103|
|Q18. Device Type|
|iOS Phone / Tablet||25.92%||267|
|Android Phone / Tablet||26.50%||273|
|Windows Desktop / Laptop||38.06%||392|
|MacOS Desktop / Laptop||7.48%||77|
This Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling & Analysis poll was conducted through Survey Monkey March 12-13, 2018 in English to 1030 Americans over the age of 18. Polling data was sorted by age, gender & geographic location in efforts to ensure a nationwide representative sample. This poll has an overall margin of error of +/- 3 points.
The Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis at LIU Post conducts independent, fair, and balanced polling, empirical research, and analysis on a wide range of public issues including lifestyle preferences. The Center’s goals include informing the community, public and policy makers about critical issues.